During the 2024 Economic Perspectives Seminar a panel was introduced on the reality of the relation between Mexico and USA and what it implies with the following political changes that the neighboring country is about to experience. The panel was presented by Rafael Fernandez de Castro Director for the Mexico-United States Studies Center; Arturo Sarukhán President of Sarukhán and Associates; Jorge Suárez-Vélez Director of Allen & Company and Ana María Salazar Director of Salazar Slack SC Group as moderator.

“There is not a bigger risk in 2024 than the american elections, and there is no analyst that feels differently”, pointed categorically the internationalist Rafael Fernández de Castro, who sees Donald Trump as the clear winner, due to the surveys, by assuring he is an extraordinary politician to be a candidate, very charismatic, with a formidable political organization and how his followers are highly identified with his populism, due to him fulfilling his promises and reverting the legalization of abortion, among other aspects. “Trump is a candidate with big energy that is admired, a brave and crazy man that is adored”, he pointed out.

In contrast, Arturo Sarukhán, Jorge Suárez Vélez and Ana María Salazar believe Joe Biden is going to win, even if it is with a very small margin, which could lead to ungovernability. Particularly, Sarukhán ambassador considered the advantage the current american president is based in the mobilizations against the Supreme Court’s vision on abortion, which also could help him to rebuild the center coalition. However, he observes some of the issues the current president will face, like his age, which transmits an image of frailty; the perception of an expensive cost of living from citizens; the loss of young and progressive votes due to his heavy-handed immigration policy to keep the republican ambush at bay; the reformation to the justice and police systems, including the excessive use of force from the police; also, the conflict in the Middle East, in which a big part of the democratic base has leaned towards the Palestine cause.

However, even with their discrepancies and nuances, all the panelists agreed that it would be catastrophic for Mexico if Trump won. While for Suarez Velez Trump’s expressions are only campaign threats and Mexico’s destiny is in its own hands, for Sarukhán, what’s at stake in these elections is “brutal” for Mexicans’ safety, wellbeing, prosperity and the bilateral relationship. He regretted that neither of the two candidates for the presidency of our country understand the importance of what would mean tariffs of 10% on all U.S. imports that would generate a trade war and global inflation; the deportation of undocumented Mexicans that would cause a diplomatic problem, in addition to a social and security problem at the border; as well as the unilateral use of force to combat organized crime.

On the other side, for the economist and editor Suarez Velez, a recession in the US is inevitable, considering its debt and tax deficit represent the 130% and the 7.4%, respectively, of its GDP, and that the 16% of the tax collection is destined to debt repayment. Nevertheless, he believes the government will make a big effort to maintain economic stability and avoid the presence of the recession before november’s elections by using several tools to stimulate the economy, like, the waiver of student debt, the purchase of bonds to avoid the rise of the interest rate, increasing the investment in infrastructure and avoiding the rise of gas prices, among others.

Lastly, Rafael Fernandez de Castro noted that this elections the en of the “Pax Americana” will be precipitated and the american leadership will arrive to its limit.

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