In the electoral lanscape, few mechanisms are as fundamental for transparency and credibility as the rapid count. This statistical mechanism, that combines science and civic participation, has been the backbone of the public trust in Mexico’s electoral processes. Luis Enrique Nieto Barajas, Char of the Statistics Department at ITAM, and Manuel Mendoza Ramírez, full time professor at ITAM, explains their work in the National Electoral Institute (INE) technical advisory committee for the 2024 elections.

What is a rapid count and how does it work?

The objective of the rapid count in to provide an accurate estimation of the election results just hours after the closing of urns, even in wide scale elections. This speed and accuracy not only strengthen transparency in the process, but also reaffirm the citizen’s trust in the democratic system.

To achieve these estimations, the rapid count uses the random selection of urns and inferential statistical methods that allow to estimate the proportions of votes in a district, state and national level. This process is fundamental to assure that the results reflect the people’s will, minimizing the opportunities for fraud or irregularities. Luis Enrique explains that this methodology has been applied by the INE for over 20 years, contributing significantly to the credibility of the electoral processes.

Compromise with transparency and justice

Luis Enrique and Manuel detail that the work of the technical advisory committee began long before the day of the election. During six or seven months, these experts collaborated in the design of the sampling systems and the creation of sturdy inference procedures. This preparation work is essential for the rapid count to be not only accurate, but also so the results are delivered in a timely manner.

Luis Enrique and Manuel’s compromise with transparency and justice in electoral processes go beyond the presentation of the results. To participate in the rapid count was an honor and an opportunity to contribute to the strengthening of the democracy in Mexico. In a global context where mistrust in institutions is growing, the rapid count represents a light of hope and reiterate the importance of statistics in the construction of a society with more justice.

Results and Credibility

Rapid count assures that every vote counts and the voice of each citizen is heard. The job of the technical committee doesn’t end with the initial estimation of the results. Luis Enrique added that, after the election day, the committee continues to work in checking the experience of rapid count and assure that the results match with other systems like the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) and the district count that takes place a week after. This comprehensive review allows to continuously improve the process and ensures that the trust in the electoral system.

Upon reflecting on the value of rapid count, Luis Enrique and Manuel point out the importance of science in the solution of complex society issues. The rapid count is more than a technical process, is a manifestation of a nation’s collective will to live in a democratic and just state.

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